Global Rice Market Overview — September 2026

Summary

The global rice market in September 2026 is driven by strong import demand from the Philippines, severe El Niño weather risks across Asian growing belts, and fluctuating FOB prices among key exporters. While prices remain firm in early September, increased supply from fresh harvests expected between October and December is projected to ease market tightness.

Key Takeaways

• Philippines Import Surge: Total imports reached 3.46M MT, with Vietnam supplying ~75% of total volume. El Niño risks threaten over 700k MT in domestic palay production, pushing the government to maintain steady buffer imports.

• Asian FOB Price Snapshot (5% Broken):
• India: $369–$375/MT (Parboiled) | $364–$369/MT (White)
• Thailand: $483–$485/MT
• Vietnam: $440–$445/MT
• Pakistan: $395–$400/MT

• Price Outlook: Prices remain firm through mid-September before gradually softening toward $355–$385/MT by Q4 2026 as new-crop arrivals enter the market.

• Strategic Advice: Exporters should lock in early Asian demand, while importers are advised to stagger purchases and expand buying volume from mid-October onward.